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>> 2018 TV technology development route analysis: Quantum dot / borderless opportunity 8K first-year surface stagnant OLED stability
According to estimates by Sigmaintell, the global TV panel shipments in 2018 will remain at 261 million units. However, the rapid growth of demand for large-size panels will drive an average increase of 1.7 inches in size, resulting in a 7.6% YoY increase in demand area. At the same time, the whole machine manufacturer also actively planned the layout of large-size products in 2018, with the average size of global TV machines increasing to 44.8 inches and an increase of 1.5 size.
From a technical point of view, the relative mobile terminal market, TV market, technological innovation in recent years appears to be quite small. According to Sigmaintell, the TV market in 2018 is still dominated by "quality and appearance", with diversified trends, accelerated adoption of 4K, and development opportunities at 8K. Quantum dots, borderless and large-size products Will usher in rapid growth.
First, the quality
1, Resolution: Open 8K first year
Whether it is LCD or OLED display products, to enhance the quality has always been the core focus of product development. TV products through various means to improve picture quality, especially the increasing resolution, has gone from HD to FHD to 4K popularity. According to Sigmaintell data, worldwide shipments of 4K LCD TV panels in 2017 reached 92 million and penetration increased to 35.3%. By 2018 global 4K LCD TV panel shipments are expected to reach 116 million, the penetration rate increased to 44.5%. 55 "and above large-size panel market, 4K panel penetration rate has exceeded 90%, the future in the 43" ~ 50 "and other medium-sized section of 4K panel penetration still have greater room for improvement.
4K in the medium and large size market gradually universalization, and 8K panel makers will compete for the next battlefield, subject to the human eye can recognize ability, 8K products are mainly concentrated in 65 "and above the large size market.
Sigmaintell predicts that the first year of development of 8K TV will be launched in 2018 and is expected to speed up infiltration after 2019. It is estimated that the shipment volume of 8K panel will reach 9 million by 2022 and the penetration rate will rise to 3.5%. Mainly based on the following five reasons:
First, the 8K Soc solution in 2018 will gradually realize volume production and supply, making the TV complete machine realize the true 8K.
Second, more and more G10.5s will be mass-produced, providing basic capacity protection for 65 "and above large-size panels. With the large size, they will also drive 8K shipment growth.
Third, the entire plant is also actively planning and layout, Sharp brand in 2017 has released its 8K products, Samsung Electronics will also be in the promotion of 8K in 2018.
Fourth, 8K content to accelerate the layout of the Olympic Games in Tokyo in 2020 will use 8K live content, 2022 Beijing Winter Games also plans to use 8K live content, the use of international events will accelerate the layout of the global region 8K content.
Fifth, mobile operators in mainland China and other regions are actively planning to commercialize 5G networks and more strongly support the transmission and operation of 8K content.
2, QD television continued rapid growth
On the one hand, the traditional QD backlight module replaces the diffuser sheet in the original TV backlight with a QD film, greatly improving the display color gamut of the TV to more than 100%, greatly making up the LED backlight on the color gamut The natural shortage. With the upstream and downstream efforts of the TV industry, the highly monopolized OQ film material has been gradually broken. More and more Chinese manufacturers are participating and work on cost reduction has achieved initial success. According to estimates by Sigmaintell, 2018 On the other hand, in 2018, Samsung will actively introduce new QD products including QD Glass and QD Pixel, among which QD Glass is about to mass-produce QD Glass's design, Manufacturers of quantum dots material directly coated on the LGP, to achieve the perfect picture quality, but also can achieve ultra-thin design. No significant increase in the cost of the premise, the brand manufacturers in the choice of QD products will be more diversified.
In addition to panel makers continued to promote technological innovation and rich resources, the whole end also gradually formed a Samsung-based camp, the Chinese brand TCL and Hisense also actively layout QD TV. Samsung Electronics will mainly promote QD TVs in the high-end product market starting in 2017. QDTV will also be the top priority of its product layout in 2018. The active promotion of the mainstream manufacturers, driving QD TV's shipments scale and penetration rate showed a rapid growth trend. According to Sigmaintell data, global shipments of QD televisions reached 7.3 million units in 2017, almost doubling the growth of 2016. It is estimated that by 2018, with active promotion of the brand positive strategy, shipments of global QD television will maintain a rapid growth. The shipment volume is expected to reach 14.3 million units and the penetration rate to 6%.
Second, the appearance: the pursuit of the ultimate "song - thin - narrow - big"
1, brand strategy changes, the decline in surface TV panel shipments
Surface TV since its introduction, because of the significant changes in appearance, caused a lot of attention in the market, and access to some consumers, especially in the Chinese market, sales performance is ideal. However, after several years of sales of curved-surface TVs, the penetration rate has not risen substantially. Especially, the sales in overseas markets have not reached the expected level. Therefore, from 2017 onwards, brands such as Samsung Electronics are gradually turning their conservative strategies toward curved TVs, In 2018, each brand factory will continue with some of the old product lines, with fewer new product lines and more conservative layouts of curved TVs. In addition to TCL machine manufacturers in China, other brands for the planning of the surface tends to be conservative.
In 2017, the panel mill continued to promote the process modification of COA and BCS, and the quality of curved panels was effectively improved. From the product layout point of view, the curved panel is mainly concentrated in the medium and large size products above 48 ", at the same time with HDR, WCG, ultra-thin borderless and other high-end product configuration.From the curvature point of view, the panel factory in the 55" and 65 " And other mainstream large size, to achieve the full application of 3000R curvature.In 2018, the mainstream panel makers will expand the flat open sharing of open cell, reduce the risk of brand strategy changes and demand decline.
Sigmaintell predicts that in 2018 shipments of global curved TV panels will reach 9 million units in 2018, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% and a penetration rate of 3.4%, due to a shift in the mainstream brand strategy. At 48% Permeability in large size panels is adjusted to 8.1%. The market for curved TVs in the next few years will maintain a slight steady decline.
2, no border on three sides is expected to become mainstream products
In the handling of the border, industry chain manufacturers continue to pursue the ultimate, the TV's border has gone from the pursuit of narrow borders to three sides no border and no borders on the continuous evolution of fashion to bring consumers the appearance of aesthetic. The borderless TV products need to actively cooperate with the panel side. The manufacturers need the GOA process and R corner design to manufacture the borderless panel, and do the side sealing on the edge without the border. At present, major panel makers are continuously expanding GOA's production capacity and product yield, making borderless costs and supply capacity improved. It is estimated that by 2018, brand manufacturers will gradually shift the three-sided borderless products from high-end products to mainstream products. The production of four-sided borderless products still faces the technical challenges of module segment FPC Bonding. The cost of production and the difficulty coefficient are high. Currently, the Korean factory is the dominant one. However, more manufacturers will start to actively deploy in 2018.
3, large-size products will welcome the explosive growth
At present, the TV market is mainly dominated by the demand for replacement. As the launch of the high-generation TV line in the world has driven the steady growth of the market, the acceptance of large size by consumers has become increasingly high.
On the one hand, in 2018, Korean and Taiwanese manufacturers will increase the production capacity of large-size panels of 65 "and above on the basis of the existing production lines. On the other hand, the G10.5 high-generation panel production line will start volume production and supply, greatly improving the size of 65" and above Panel supply capacity. Meanwhile, the price of TV panels in the second half of 2017 will continue to decline. The price adjustment will actively stimulate the recovery of the demand for large-size panels. According to Sigmaintell data, the demand for 65 "panels will reach 13.6 million in 2018, up 22% YoY in the global TV panel market and more than 5% in the global TV panel market by 2018. The demand for oversized sizes above 65" will reach 430 Million units, an increase of 14%, market share increased to 1.6%.
Third, OLED TV: steady growth
OLED TV is a hot discussion in the industry, but the upstream OLED TV panel is still only able to mass production supply LGD, subject to supply-side restrictions is very obvious. According to Sigmaintell statistics, in 2017, thanks to the expansion of LGD's production capacity and the improvement of yield, OLED TV panels shipped 1.7 million units and the penetration rate rose to 0.6%. Although there is no obvious capacity growth in 2018, shipments of 2.6 million units will be expected after the improvement of yield and efficiency. The penetration rate will continue to grow.
LGD for the follow-up large-size OLED panel production planning is relatively positive, investment in China G8.5 generation of OLED production line has been approved by the Korean government, is about to usher in mass production in 2019, and follow-up investment G10.5 on behalf of the OLED production line Planning. Sigmaintell expects the global OLED TV market to maintain a steady growth in the next five years.
Although the technical update in the TV market has entered a stable period, as the Internet of Things continues to deepen, TV applications become more diversified. In addition to quality and appearance, Sigmaintell believes that in terms of quality, intelligence and other smart devices Interconnection and other aspects have become even more important. TV machine manufacturers should not be limited to the competition between brands, but should expand their horizons to compete with other smart devices, win more users for the future to become IoT terminals, grasp user stickiness, and create a full range of Product competitiveness.
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